The 87.5% implied probability on “No” for Ronaldo scoring a World Cup free kick stems primarily from his age and Portugal’s likely limited knockout run. At 41, the forward’s set-piece volume has declined sharply, with most free kicks now taken by teammates or specialists. Portugal enters the 2026 tournament as a strong group-stage side but faces a difficult draw that historically produces early exits before deep runs where Ronaldo would log significant minutes. Official team selections and recent Nations League form confirm he remains a starter when fit, yet his conversion rate on direct free kicks has fallen below elite levels. These factors combine to keep the chance of him personally converting one from open play low in traders’ assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於A direct free kick goal is one scored directly from the free kick and officially credited to Cristiano Ronaldo by FIFA. A goal that deflects off the wall or a defender and still enters the net counts, provided FIFA credits the goal to Ronaldo. A free kick first touched by a teammate does not count. Penalty kicks and penalty shootout goals do not count.
If Cristiano Ronaldo does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Ronaldo scored a direct free kick goal within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jun 8, 2026, 11:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A direct free kick goal is one scored directly from the free kick and officially credited to Cristiano Ronaldo by FIFA. A goal that deflects off the wall or a defender and still enters the net counts, provided FIFA credits the goal to Ronaldo. A free kick first touched by a teammate does not count. Penalty kicks and penalty shootout goals do not count.
If Cristiano Ronaldo does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Ronaldo scored a direct free kick goal within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 87.5% implied probability on “No” for Ronaldo scoring a World Cup free kick stems primarily from his age and Portugal’s likely limited knockout run. At 41, the forward’s set-piece volume has declined sharply, with most free kicks now taken by teammates or specialists. Portugal enters the 2026 tournament as a strong group-stage side but faces a difficult draw that historically produces early exits before deep runs where Ronaldo would log significant minutes. Official team selections and recent Nations League form confirm he remains a starter when fit, yet his conversion rate on direct free kicks has fallen below elite levels. These factors combine to keep the chance of him personally converting one from open play low in traders’ assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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