Incumbent U.S. Representative Randy Fine holds an 84.5% implied probability in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, reflecting his April 2025 special election victory, strong fundraising totals reported in mid-April, and Trump endorsement that consolidated early support among party voters. Dan Bilzerian’s April filing as a high-profile challenger briefly lifted his odds to the current 8.7% range through national name recognition, yet limited campaign infrastructure and lack of local ties have kept his position secondary. Aaron Baker trails at 5.8% on grassroots efforts without comparable resources, while the remaining candidates register below 1%. No recent polling shifts or major endorsements have altered the consensus, though the low-turnout primary leaves room for late developments such as additional filings or external events before the August deadline.