The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from roughly 3.68% a year earlier amid a hawkish Federal Reserve policy shift. The FOMC raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% in mid-September, with the median dot plot signaling a 4.1% funds rate through 2027 and upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation forecasts. Persistent core price pressures, elevated term premiums reflecting fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply, plus resilient growth have driven the repricing. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data, Treasury auctions, and the next FOMC meeting, all of which could influence whether intermediate yields test higher levels before year-end 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,204 交易量
2026-12-30
5.25%
20%
5.10%
65%
5.00%
61%
4.95%
72%
4.90%
87%
$25,204 交易量
5.25%
$4,040 交易量
20%
5.10%
$6,812 交易量
65%
5.00%
$5,352 交易量
61%
4.95%
$1,186 交易量
72%
4.90%
$1,892 交易量
87%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from roughly 3.68% a year earlier amid a hawkish Federal Reserve policy shift. The FOMC raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% in mid-September, with the median dot plot signaling a 4.1% funds rate through 2027 and upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation forecasts. Persistent core price pressures, elevated term premiums reflecting fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply, plus resilient growth have driven the repricing. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data, Treasury auctions, and the next FOMC meeting, all of which could influence whether intermediate yields test higher levels before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$25,204结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from roughly 3.68% a year earlier amid a hawkish Federal Reserve policy shift. The FOMC raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% in mid-September, with the median dot plot signaling a 4.1% funds rate through 2027 and upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation forecasts. Persistent core price pressures, elevated term premiums reflecting fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply, plus resilient growth have driven the repricing. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data, Treasury auctions, and the next FOMC meeting, all of which could influence whether intermediate yields test higher levels before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$25,204结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from roughly 3.68% a year earlier amid a hawkish Federal Reserve policy shift. The FOMC raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% in mid-September, with the median dot plot signaling a 4.1% funds rate through 2027 and upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation forecasts. Persistent core price pressures, elevated term premiums reflecting fiscal deficit concerns and heavy Treasury supply, plus resilient growth have driven the repricing. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data, Treasury auctions, and the next FOMC meeting, all of which could influence whether intermediate yields test higher levels before year-end 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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