Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel have lifted inflation expectations, driving the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026—up notably from August levels around 4.35-4.4%. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and other officials, including openness to a September rate hike if inflation persists, have reinforced "higher for longer" pricing, with market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point hike near 64%. The resilient U.S. economy and fiscal deficit concerns add upward pressure on yields. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could shift the rate path and Treasury market dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
低于4.52%
51%
低于4.49%
49%
低于4.46%
50%
低于4.43%
51%
低于4.40%
50%
低于4.37%
50%
低于4.32%
50%
低于4.27%
50%
低于4.20%
51%
$0.00 交易量
低于4.52%
$0 交易量
51%
低于4.49%
$0 交易量
49%
低于4.46%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.43%
$0 交易量
51%
低于4.40%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.37%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.32%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.27%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.20%
$0 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel have lifted inflation expectations, driving the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026—up notably from August levels around 4.35-4.4%. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and other officials, including openness to a September rate hike if inflation persists, have reinforced "higher for longer" pricing, with market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point hike near 64%. The resilient U.S. economy and fiscal deficit concerns add upward pressure on yields. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could shift the rate path and Treasury market dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel have lifted inflation expectations, driving the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026—up notably from August levels around 4.35-4.4%. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and other officials, including openness to a September rate hike if inflation persists, have reinforced "higher for longer" pricing, with market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point hike near 64%. The resilient U.S. economy and fiscal deficit concerns add upward pressure on yields. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could shift the rate path and Treasury market dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETRecent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices near $95 per barrel have lifted inflation expectations, driving the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026—up notably from August levels around 4.35-4.4%. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and other officials, including openness to a September rate hike if inflation persists, have reinforced "higher for longer" pricing, with market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point hike near 64%. The resilient U.S. economy and fiscal deficit concerns add upward pressure on yields. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could shift the rate path and Treasury market dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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