Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, driving 30-year Treasury yields to 5.27% as of September 2, up sharply from earlier 2026 lows near 4.63%. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply have compounded the pressure, overwhelming the impact of an expanded buyback program announced in August. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have raised the implied probability of a September rate hike, supporting higher long-term yields despite some dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams. With the FOMC meeting approaching and labor and inflation data releases ahead, market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether yields can sustain a decline or remain anchored near multi-year highs.