Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide, based on USGS long-term records of roughly 120–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (47%) or one (33%) event during June 15–21 aligns with this baseline rate and the absence of active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters following the June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao quake. Recent monitoring shows only minor elevations in magnitude 5+ activity through mid-June without model consensus for intensification, while lunar tidal forecasts for stronger triggering have already peaked earlier in the month. USGS data releases and ongoing global network updates through the week will provide the key resolution inputs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月15日至6月21日发生了多少次6.5级或以上的地震？
6月15日至6月21日发生了多少次6.5级或以上的地震？
0 47%
1 33%
2 13%
3 3.0%
最新
最新
2026-06-21
0
47%
1
33%
2
13%
3
3%
4
3%
5
2%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 33%
2 13%
3 3.0%
最新
最新
2026-06-21
0
$2 交易量
47%
1
$3 交易量
33%
2
$10 交易量
13%
3
$117 交易量
3%
4
$1,223 交易量
3%
5
$154 交易量
2%
>5
$168 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide, based on USGS long-term records of roughly 120–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (47%) or one (33%) event during June 15–21 aligns with this baseline rate and the absence of active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters following the June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao quake. Recent monitoring shows only minor elevations in magnitude 5+ activity through mid-June without model consensus for intensification, while lunar tidal forecasts for stronger triggering have already peaked earlier in the month. USGS data releases and ongoing global network updates through the week will provide the key resolution inputs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
交易量
$1,676结束日期
2026-06-21市场开放时间
Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide, based on USGS long-term records of roughly 120–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (47%) or one (33%) event during June 15–21 aligns with this baseline rate and the absence of active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters following the June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao quake. Recent monitoring shows only minor elevations in magnitude 5+ activity through mid-June without model consensus for intensification, while lunar tidal forecasts for stronger triggering have already peaked earlier in the month. USGS data releases and ongoing global network updates through the week will provide the key resolution inputs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$1,676结束日期
2026-06-21市场开放时间
Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week worldwide, based on USGS long-term records of roughly 120–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (47%) or one (33%) event during June 15–21 aligns with this baseline rate and the absence of active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters following the June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao quake. Recent monitoring shows only minor elevations in magnitude 5+ activity through mid-June without model consensus for intensification, while lunar tidal forecasts for stronger triggering have already peaked earlier in the month. USGS data releases and ongoing global network updates through the week will provide the key resolution inputs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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