Lebanese leaders including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun have repeatedly stated that full diplomatic normalization with Israel remains far off, conditioned on broader Arab Peace Initiative requirements such as a Palestinian state. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated talks since 2025 have produced ceasefires, border discussions, and a June 2026 memorandum focused on security arrangements and Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River, yet Hezbollah’s leadership has rejected these channels and any path to recognition or economic ties. Persistent violations of truce terms, Iranian influence, and domestic Lebanese constraints continue to limit progress, aligning with trader pricing that places full normalization before 2027 at low implied probability.