Ongoing military conflict and the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 drive the 96.5% trader consensus against Israel reopening an embassy in Iran during 2026. Direct U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompting retaliatory actions, followed by intermittent fighting, blockades, and stalled mediation into August. These developments, combined with Iran's policy of non-recognition and proxy confrontations, reinforce expectations of continued hostility. Realistic shifts could arise from a full ceasefire agreement resolving nuclear and sanctions disputes, a fundamental Iranian regime transition, or multilateral normalization talks, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict and the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 drive the 96.5% trader consensus against Israel reopening an embassy in Iran during 2026. Direct U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompting retaliatory actions, followed by intermittent fighting, blockades, and stalled mediation into August. These developments, combined with Iran's policy of non-recognition and proxy confrontations, reinforce expectations of continued hostility. Realistic shifts could arise from a full ceasefire agreement resolving nuclear and sanctions disputes, a fundamental Iranian regime transition, or multilateral normalization talks, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$193,377结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict and the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 drive the 96.5% trader consensus against Israel reopening an embassy in Iran during 2026. Direct U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompting retaliatory actions, followed by intermittent fighting, blockades, and stalled mediation into August. These developments, combined with Iran's policy of non-recognition and proxy confrontations, reinforce expectations of continued hostility. Realistic shifts could arise from a full ceasefire agreement resolving nuclear and sanctions disputes, a fundamental Iranian regime transition, or multilateral normalization talks, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$193,377结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military conflict and the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 drive the 96.5% trader consensus against Israel reopening an embassy in Iran during 2026. Direct U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompting retaliatory actions, followed by intermittent fighting, blockades, and stalled mediation into August. These developments, combined with Iran's policy of non-recognition and proxy confrontations, reinforce expectations of continued hostility. Realistic shifts could arise from a full ceasefire agreement resolving nuclear and sanctions disputes, a fundamental Iranian regime transition, or multilateral normalization talks, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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