Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability that the Supreme Court will rule to bar states from counting mail-in ballots received after Election Day, even if postmarked timely, driven by oral arguments in Watson v. RNC on March 23, 2026. Conservative justices, including Alito, expressed skepticism toward Mississippi's grace period law and similar statutes in over a dozen states, emphasizing federal Election Day statutes like 52 U.S.C. § 41 as requiring ballots received by polls' close for uniform national elections. No decision has issued ahead of the June recess, prompting election officials' warnings of midterm disruptions and states' contingency planning; historical precedent in Foster v. Love reinforces a single Election Day, bolstering yes sentiment despite liberal justices' concerns over voter access.