Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于低于2.6% 38.5%
2.9-3.2% 35.8%
4.4-4.7% 10.9%
3.2-3.5% 7.3%
$21,308 交易量
$21,308 交易量
2027-01-20
低于2.6%
39%
2.6-2.9%
39%
2.9-3.2%
36%
3.2-3.5%
16%
3.5-3.8%
16%
3.8-4.1%
39%
4.1-4.4%
39%
4.4-4.7%
11%
4.7-5.0%
22%
>5.0%
31%
低于2.6% 38.5%
2.9-3.2% 35.8%
4.4-4.7% 10.9%
3.2-3.5% 7.3%
$21,308 交易量
$21,308 交易量
2027-01-20
低于2.6%
$260 交易量
39%
2.6-2.9%
$275 交易量
39%
2.9-3.2%
$362 交易量
36%
3.2-3.5%
$363 交易量
16%
3.5-3.8%
$465 交易量
16%
3.8-4.1%
$655 交易量
39%
4.1-4.4%
$532 交易量
39%
4.4-4.7%
$12,089 交易量
11%
4.7-5.0%
$366 交易量
22%
>5.0%
$5,941 交易量
31%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
市场开放时间： Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$21,308结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
交易量
$21,308结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题