Recent declines in crude oil prices, including Brent falling below $90 per barrel amid improved supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the seasonal shift to lower-cost winter-blend gasoline and softer autumn demand, have driven the U.S. national average for regular gasoline below $4 per gallon for the first time since July. As of mid-November 2026, daily and weekly readings from AAA and GasBuddy show the average hovering near $3.84–$3.93, with further downward momentum from reduced refinery costs and easing geopolitical tensions supporting the market-implied 92% odds for the $3.8200–3.8299 range on November 15. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in this trajectory while noting that any sudden escalation in Middle East supply risks or delayed inventory data could push prices outside the narrow band.