Recent polling for Victoria's November 28, 2026, state election shows a fragmented primary vote among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering between 22-32 percent in August surveys, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor's position has weakened amid leadership transitions and voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and debt, while One Nation's gains complicate preference flows that historically favor the major parties. This volatility sustains trader focus on Labor as the most probable second-place finisher behind a potential Coalition plurality, though shifts in minor-party momentum or late campaign events could realign seat outcomes across the 88 Legislative Assembly districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Labor 59%
Liberal–National 23%
One Nation 20%
Greens 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-28
Labor
59%
Liberal–National
23%
One Nation
20%
Greens
3%
Labor 59%
Liberal–National 23%
One Nation 20%
Greens 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-28
Labor
$0 交易量
59%
Liberal–National
$0 交易量
23%
One Nation
$0 交易量
20%
Greens
$0 交易量
3%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria's November 28, 2026, state election shows a fragmented primary vote among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering between 22-32 percent in August surveys, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor's position has weakened amid leadership transitions and voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and debt, while One Nation's gains complicate preference flows that historically favor the major parties. This volatility sustains trader focus on Labor as the most probable second-place finisher behind a potential Coalition plurality, though shifts in minor-party momentum or late campaign events could realign seat outcomes across the 88 Legislative Assembly districts.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria's November 28, 2026, state election shows a fragmented primary vote among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering between 22-32 percent in August surveys, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor's position has weakened amid leadership transitions and voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and debt, while One Nation's gains complicate preference flows that historically favor the major parties. This volatility sustains trader focus on Labor as the most probable second-place finisher behind a potential Coalition plurality, though shifts in minor-party momentum or late campaign events could realign seat outcomes across the 88 Legislative Assembly districts.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Victoria's November 28, 2026, state election shows a fragmented primary vote among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering between 22-32 percent in August surveys, with the Coalition often edging ahead on two-party preferred measures. Labor's position has weakened amid leadership transitions and voter concerns over cost of living, crime, and debt, while One Nation's gains complicate preference flows that historically favor the major parties. This volatility sustains trader focus on Labor as the most probable second-place finisher behind a potential Coalition plurality, though shifts in minor-party momentum or late campaign events could realign seat outcomes across the 88 Legislative Assembly districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于相关
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
65%
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
72%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
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