Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于One Nation 80%
Labor 16%
Animal Justice 3.9%
Legalise Cannabis 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-11-28
One Nation
80%
Labor
16%
Animal Justice
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
Greens
4%
Libertarian
4%
Liberal–National
4%
One Nation 80%
Labor 16%
Animal Justice 3.9%
Legalise Cannabis 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-11-28
One Nation
$0 交易量
80%
Labor
$4 交易量
16%
Animal Justice
$0 交易量
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 交易量
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 交易量
4%
Greens
$0 交易量
4%
Libertarian
$0 交易量
4%
Liberal–National
$0 交易量
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
交易量
$4结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
交易量
$4结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于相关
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