Recent Victorian state election polling shows One Nation averaging near 23% primary support, placing it consistently third behind the Coalition and Labor while ahead of the Greens. This positioning stems from sustained gains since mid-2026 across multiple pollsters, with the party targeting regional and outer-suburban seats and fielding candidates for the November 28 contest. Labor’s primary vote has remained subdued near 24-25% following its leadership transition, limiting its ability to overtake One Nation, while the Greens hover around 14%. Seat projections reinforce One Nation’s competitive standing, though preference flows and final turnout could still alter exact ordering among minor parties. Trader consensus on One Nation as the leading third-place outcome reflects these primary-vote patterns.