Recent polls indicate the Liberal–National Coalition holds a primary-vote edge and leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis around 55-45, consistent with the market's 55.5% implied probability for the Coalition as election winner on 28 November 2026. A three-way primary split persists, with One Nation polling in the low-to-mid 20s and drawing support from disaffected voters, while Labor trails on primary votes after more than a decade in office and recent leadership transitions. One Nation's candidate announcements and preference flows will influence seat outcomes in marginal districts, keeping the contest competitive despite the Coalition's current positioning. Further polling shifts or late-campaign developments in key battlegrounds could alter the final margin before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Liberal–National 55%
Labor 32%
One Nation 6%
Greens 4.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
55%
Labor
32%
One Nation
6%
Greens
4%
Liberal–National 55%
Labor 32%
One Nation 6%
Greens 4.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
$836 交易量
55%
Labor
$181 交易量
32%
One Nation
$43 交易量
6%
Greens
$90 交易量
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls indicate the Liberal–National Coalition holds a primary-vote edge and leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis around 55-45, consistent with the market's 55.5% implied probability for the Coalition as election winner on 28 November 2026. A three-way primary split persists, with One Nation polling in the low-to-mid 20s and drawing support from disaffected voters, while Labor trails on primary votes after more than a decade in office and recent leadership transitions. One Nation's candidate announcements and preference flows will influence seat outcomes in marginal districts, keeping the contest competitive despite the Coalition's current positioning. Further polling shifts or late-campaign developments in key battlegrounds could alter the final margin before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
交易量
$1,150结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls indicate the Liberal–National Coalition holds a primary-vote edge and leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis around 55-45, consistent with the market's 55.5% implied probability for the Coalition as election winner on 28 November 2026. A three-way primary split persists, with One Nation polling in the low-to-mid 20s and drawing support from disaffected voters, while Labor trails on primary votes after more than a decade in office and recent leadership transitions. One Nation's candidate announcements and preference flows will influence seat outcomes in marginal districts, keeping the contest competitive despite the Coalition's current positioning. Further polling shifts or late-campaign developments in key battlegrounds could alter the final margin before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
交易量
$1,150结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls indicate the Liberal–National Coalition holds a primary-vote edge and leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis around 55-45, consistent with the market's 55.5% implied probability for the Coalition as election winner on 28 November 2026. A three-way primary split persists, with One Nation polling in the low-to-mid 20s and drawing support from disaffected voters, while Labor trails on primary votes after more than a decade in office and recent leadership transitions. One Nation's candidate announcements and preference flows will influence seat outcomes in marginal districts, keeping the contest competitive despite the Coalition's current positioning. Further polling shifts or late-campaign developments in key battlegrounds could alter the final margin before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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