Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 72.4%
谷歌 16%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,766,419 交易量
$5,766,419 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
72%
谷歌
16%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
Meta
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
美团
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
谷歌 16%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,766,419 交易量
$5,766,419 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$823,340 交易量
72%
谷歌
$503,224 交易量
16%
OpenAI
$330,115 交易量
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 交易量
3%
Meta
$127,160 交易量
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$493,047 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$153,508 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$292,839 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$360,397 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$350,769 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$462,676 交易量
<1%
微软
$143,766 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$149,069 交易量
<1%
美团
$371,283 交易量
<1%
百度
$151,745 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$5,766,419结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$5,766,419结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance across Arena.ai leaderboards as of May 12. Anthropic's latest release on April 16 showcased superior agentic coding (e.g., 77%+ on SWE-bench), long-context reasoning, and multimodal vision, securing the top four spots in Text Arena with Elo scores above 1490—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1490 at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8). No major rival announcements have shifted standings in the past week, but Google's I/O previews and regulatory pre-release testing for xAI/Grok could introduce catalysts before resolution. xAI trails at 2.7% amid narrower strengths in creative prompts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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