Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 90%
谷歌 11%
OpenAI <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$8,837,755 交易量
$8,837,755 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
90%
谷歌
11%
OpenAI
1%
字节跳动
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
百度
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
微软
<1%
Anthropic 90%
谷歌 11%
OpenAI <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$8,837,755 交易量
$8,837,755 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$651,180 交易量
90%
谷歌
$601,475 交易量
11%
OpenAI
$747,759 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$552,667 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$521,785 交易量
<1%
Meta
$522,814 交易量
<1%
xAI
$666,292 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$518,378 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$557,756 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,923 交易量
<1%
百度
$470,637 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$403,756 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,640 交易量
<1%
美团
$311,909 交易量
<1%
微软
$413,851 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
交易量
$8,837,755结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$8,837,755结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Anthropic holding an 88.5% implied probability for the best large language model by end of May reflects recent benchmark leadership from its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 releases. These models have posted top scores on SWE-Bench Verified for coding and agentic workflows, along with strong human-preference results on Arena leaderboards, outpacing competitors in practical autonomy and instruction following. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains an 11.5% share through competitive GPQA Diamond reasoning marks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series sits at just 0.5% amid mixed results on extended-context tasks. No major new model launches have shifted the landscape in the past week, though ongoing benchmark updates and any surprise capability demonstrations could still alter market-implied odds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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