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icon for 莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?

莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?

icon for 莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?

莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?

$117,848 交易量

2026-10-31
Polymarket

$117,848 交易量

Polymarket

10月31日

$119 交易量

3%

12月31日

$816 交易量

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination has fueled trader focus on his location and potential departure. Iranian officials attribute the lack of appearances to security threats amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, while issuing unverified statements and claims of meetings or sightings to affirm he remains in Iran and exercises authority. Reports cite serious injuries sustained in the February attack, with persistent rumors of grave illness or death circulating among regime insiders and analysts. Recent September 2026 media references emphasize his qualifications and religious role, yet no confirmed public footage or direct communications have emerged. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether health needs, protection, or succession pressures could prompt an exit from the country.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.

Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$117,848
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination has fueled trader focus on his location and potential departure. Iranian officials attribute the lack of appearances to security threats amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, while issuing unverified statements and claims of meetings or sightings to affirm he remains in Iran and exercises authority. Reports cite serious injuries sustained in the February attack, with persistent rumors of grave illness or death circulating among regime insiders and analysts. Recent September 2026 media references emphasize his qualifications and religious role, yet no confirmed public footage or direct communications have emerged. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether health needs, protection, or succession pressures could prompt an exit from the country.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.

Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$117,848
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"12月31日",概率为 6%,其次是"10月31日",概率为 3%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 6¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 6%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?"已产生 $117.8K 的总交易量(自Jul 19, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?"的当前领先者是"12月31日",仅有 6%,"10月31日"紧随其后为 3%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"莫塔巴·哈梅内伊是否会在……之前离开伊朗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。