Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader after his father’s February 2026 assassination has been marked by complete public absence, with all statements issued in written form from secure domestic locations. Regime officials and President Pezeshkian cite ongoing security threats from U.S.-Israeli strikes as the reason for his concealment inside Iran, while unverified reports of treatment abroad or severe injury remain unconfirmed and are discounted by Israeli and Western assessments placing him in Tehran. Trader pricing on departure markets reflects this consensus, as no primary-source evidence indicates plans or capability for exit, and institutional continuity continues through decrees attributed to him. Escalation in the conflict, verified health updates, or shifts in Revolutionary Guard influence represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before any resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$117,848 交易量
2026-10-31
10月31日
3%
12月31日
4%
$117,848 交易量
10月31日
$119 交易量
3%
12月31日
$816 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader after his father’s February 2026 assassination has been marked by complete public absence, with all statements issued in written form from secure domestic locations. Regime officials and President Pezeshkian cite ongoing security threats from U.S.-Israeli strikes as the reason for his concealment inside Iran, while unverified reports of treatment abroad or severe injury remain unconfirmed and are discounted by Israeli and Western assessments placing him in Tehran. Trader pricing on departure markets reflects this consensus, as no primary-source evidence indicates plans or capability for exit, and institutional continuity continues through decrees attributed to him. Escalation in the conflict, verified health updates, or shifts in Revolutionary Guard influence represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before any resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$117,848结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader after his father’s February 2026 assassination has been marked by complete public absence, with all statements issued in written form from secure domestic locations. Regime officials and President Pezeshkian cite ongoing security threats from U.S.-Israeli strikes as the reason for his concealment inside Iran, while unverified reports of treatment abroad or severe injury remain unconfirmed and are discounted by Israeli and Western assessments placing him in Tehran. Trader pricing on departure markets reflects this consensus, as no primary-source evidence indicates plans or capability for exit, and institutional continuity continues through decrees attributed to him. Escalation in the conflict, verified health updates, or shifts in Revolutionary Guard influence represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before any resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$117,848结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETMojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader after his father’s February 2026 assassination has been marked by complete public absence, with all statements issued in written form from secure domestic locations. Regime officials and President Pezeshkian cite ongoing security threats from U.S.-Israeli strikes as the reason for his concealment inside Iran, while unverified reports of treatment abroad or severe injury remain unconfirmed and are discounted by Israeli and Western assessments placing him in Tehran. Trader pricing on departure markets reflects this consensus, as no primary-source evidence indicates plans or capability for exit, and institutional continuity continues through decrees attributed to him. Escalation in the conflict, verified health updates, or shifts in Revolutionary Guard influence represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before any resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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