Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination has fueled trader focus on his location and potential departure. Iranian officials attribute the lack of appearances to security threats amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, while issuing unverified statements and claims of meetings or sightings to affirm he remains in Iran and exercises authority. Reports cite serious injuries sustained in the February attack, with persistent rumors of grave illness or death circulating among regime insiders and analysts. Recent September 2026 media references emphasize his qualifications and religious role, yet no confirmed public footage or direct communications have emerged. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether health needs, protection, or succession pressures could prompt an exit from the country.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$117,848 交易量
10月31日
3%
12月31日
6%
$117,848 交易量
10月31日
3%
12月31日
6%
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination has fueled trader focus on his location and potential departure. Iranian officials attribute the lack of appearances to security threats amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, while issuing unverified statements and claims of meetings or sightings to affirm he remains in Iran and exercises authority. Reports cite serious injuries sustained in the February attack, with persistent rumors of grave illness or death circulating among regime insiders and analysts. Recent September 2026 media references emphasize his qualifications and religious role, yet no confirmed public footage or direct communications have emerged. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether health needs, protection, or succession pressures could prompt an exit from the country.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于



警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题