Meta's strong positioning at 87.5% implied probability for #2 AI lab by end-September stems from its September 2 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which delivered measurable gains in arena.ai Text Arena preferences under style control, particularly in coding, agentic workflows, and controllable generation. The update emphasized reduced tool calls, better prompt adherence, and resistance to injections, aligning directly with the market's evaluation criteria. While Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra lead overall intelligence benchmarks, Meta's open-weight Llama lineage and rapid iteration have narrowed the gap in human-preference voting. With resolution less than ten days away, traders are pricing limited upside for Google, Anthropic, or Chinese labs absent major late-month shifts in the filtered leaderboard.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMeta 88%
Google 6.6%
Anthropic 3.9%
OpenAI 2.5%
$89,239 Vol.
$89,239 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
88%
7%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 88%
Google 6.6%
Anthropic 3.9%
OpenAI 2.5%
$89,239 Vol.
$89,239 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$30,180 Vol.
88%
$11,533 Vol.
7%
Anthropic
$4,676 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$16,224 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$2,413 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,723 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,678 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,263 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,535 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,795 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,409 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$645 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,538 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$460 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$820 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$665 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$733 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$831 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's strong positioning at 87.5% implied probability for #2 AI lab by end-September stems from its September 2 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which delivered measurable gains in arena.ai Text Arena preferences under style control, particularly in coding, agentic workflows, and controllable generation. The update emphasized reduced tool calls, better prompt adherence, and resistance to injections, aligning directly with the market's evaluation criteria. While Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra lead overall intelligence benchmarks, Meta's open-weight Llama lineage and rapid iteration have narrowed the gap in human-preference voting. With resolution less than ten days away, traders are pricing limited upside for Google, Anthropic, or Chinese labs absent major late-month shifts in the filtered leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ভলিউম
$89,239শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's strong positioning at 87.5% implied probability for #2 AI lab by end-September stems from its September 2 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which delivered measurable gains in arena.ai Text Arena preferences under style control, particularly in coding, agentic workflows, and controllable generation. The update emphasized reduced tool calls, better prompt adherence, and resistance to injections, aligning directly with the market's evaluation criteria. While Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra lead overall intelligence benchmarks, Meta's open-weight Llama lineage and rapid iteration have narrowed the gap in human-preference voting. With resolution less than ten days away, traders are pricing limited upside for Google, Anthropic, or Chinese labs absent major late-month shifts in the filtered leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ভলিউম
$89,239শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Meta's strong positioning at 87.5% implied probability for #2 AI lab by end-September stems from its September 2 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which delivered measurable gains in arena.ai Text Arena preferences under style control, particularly in coding, agentic workflows, and controllable generation. The update emphasized reduced tool calls, better prompt adherence, and resistance to injections, aligning directly with the market's evaluation criteria. While Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra lead overall intelligence benchmarks, Meta's open-weight Llama lineage and rapid iteration have narrowed the gap in human-preference voting. With resolution less than ten days away, traders are pricing limited upside for Google, Anthropic, or Chinese labs absent major late-month shifts in the filtered leaderboard.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা