Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary standings, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal caucus since November 2025, the latest being Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These defections, alongside April by-elections, delivered the Liberals a majority without a general election. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has faced repeated criticism over caucus cohesion, prompting ongoing speculation about further switches amid reported recruitment efforts targeting remaining opposition members. Historical patterns show such moves often cluster during periods of minority government instability, with traders watching for signals from internal Conservative tensions or public statements before any scheduled summer recess.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডনতুন
Jun 30, 2026
May 15
2%
May 31
12%
$1,764 Vol.
May 15
$1,331 Vol.
2%
May 31
$255 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary standings, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal caucus since November 2025, the latest being Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These defections, alongside April by-elections, delivered the Liberals a majority without a general election. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has faced repeated criticism over caucus cohesion, prompting ongoing speculation about further switches amid reported recruitment efforts targeting remaining opposition members. Historical patterns show such moves often cluster during periods of minority government instability, with traders watching for signals from internal Conservative tensions or public statements before any scheduled summer recess.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
ভলিউম
$1,764শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary standings, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal caucus since November 2025, the latest being Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These defections, alongside April by-elections, delivered the Liberals a majority without a general election. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has faced repeated criticism over caucus cohesion, prompting ongoing speculation about further switches amid reported recruitment efforts targeting remaining opposition members. Historical patterns show such moves often cluster during periods of minority government instability, with traders watching for signals from internal Conservative tensions or public statements before any scheduled summer recess.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$1,764শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary standings, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal caucus since November 2025, the latest being Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8. These defections, alongside April by-elections, delivered the Liberals a majority without a general election. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has faced repeated criticism over caucus cohesion, prompting ongoing speculation about further switches amid reported recruitment efforts targeting remaining opposition members. Historical patterns show such moves often cluster during periods of minority government instability, with traders watching for signals from internal Conservative tensions or public statements before any scheduled summer recess.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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