Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to fewer than five posts from Iran's Supreme Leader during the May 19–26 window, consistent with his established pattern of limited direct social media activity. Official statements and formal addresses through state channels continue to serve as his primary mode of communication, with posting frequency remaining low absent acute crises or scheduled high-level summits. No major diplomatic deadlines, leadership transitions, or regional escalations are currently set to occur in the immediate period that would alter this baseline. The market's secondary probabilities on the 5–9 and higher ranges reflect the possibility of isolated announcements tied to routine policy matters or external developments.