Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June 2026 Copom meeting, reflecting the continuation of a cautious easing cycle that began with consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.75% in March and 14.50% in late April. Recent IPCA readings and Focus survey expectations for 2026 inflation around 4.1–4.9% remain above the 3% target midpoint, yet moderating GDP growth, resilient but non-accelerating labor conditions, and the restrictive stance of current policy have supported further calibration. Geopolitical uncertainty from Middle East conflicts has elevated short-term inflation risks without derailing the market-implied rate path, while the absence of forward guidance from the April minutes leaves room for data-dependent adjustments ahead of the mid-June decision.