The Bank of Russia's April 24 cut of its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5 percent, the eighth consecutive reduction, has anchored trader expectations for another easing move at the June 19 meeting. Recent inflation data showing a decline to 5.7 percent as of mid-April, alongside the central bank's own forecast of 4.5–5.5 percent for full-year 2026, supports the 85 percent implied probability of a further decrease. Economic momentum has also softened, with tax hikes and fewer business days contributing to slower growth in the first quarter, tilting the balance toward looser monetary policy. At the same time, officials have highlighted persistent pro-inflationary risks and elevated underlying price pressures near 4–5 percent annualized, which caps the odds of no change at 12.5 percent and renders an increase unlikely at just 2.1 percent. The next decision will hinge on whether the disinflation trend proves durable before the summer meeting.