Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s to low-40s for the October 4 first round, with figures such as 36% in the latest Datafolha survey and 41.7% in AtlasIntel, reflecting steady consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party nominee as smaller conservative candidates remain marginal. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 39%+ outcome amid this positioning, driven by the candidate’s ability to inherit votes from other right-leaning contenders and recent gains among women shown in Quaest tracking. Campaign activity has intensified with direct attacks on President Lula’s last-minute Bolsa Família adjustment, while the overall race remains a technical tie in runoff simulations across multiple firms. No major last-minute shifts have altered the established range in the final weeks before voting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড39%+ 90%
36-39% 7.8%
33-36% 1.4%
30-33% 1.2%
$51,789 Vol.
$51,789 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
<1%
30-33%
1%
33-36%
1%
36-39%
8%
39%+
90%
39%+ 90%
36-39% 7.8%
33-36% 1.4%
30-33% 1.2%
$51,789 Vol.
$51,789 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
$5,070 Vol.
<1%
30-33%
$5,215 Vol.
1%
33-36%
$5,985 Vol.
1%
36-39%
$11,244 Vol.
8%
39%+
$24,276 Vol.
90%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s to low-40s for the October 4 first round, with figures such as 36% in the latest Datafolha survey and 41.7% in AtlasIntel, reflecting steady consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party nominee as smaller conservative candidates remain marginal. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 39%+ outcome amid this positioning, driven by the candidate’s ability to inherit votes from other right-leaning contenders and recent gains among women shown in Quaest tracking. Campaign activity has intensified with direct attacks on President Lula’s last-minute Bolsa Família adjustment, while the overall race remains a technical tie in runoff simulations across multiple firms. No major last-minute shifts have altered the established range in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
ভলিউম
$51,789শেষ তারিখ
Oct 5, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s to low-40s for the October 4 first round, with figures such as 36% in the latest Datafolha survey and 41.7% in AtlasIntel, reflecting steady consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party nominee as smaller conservative candidates remain marginal. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 39%+ outcome amid this positioning, driven by the candidate’s ability to inherit votes from other right-leaning contenders and recent gains among women shown in Quaest tracking. Campaign activity has intensified with direct attacks on President Lula’s last-minute Bolsa Família adjustment, while the overall race remains a technical tie in runoff simulations across multiple firms. No major last-minute shifts have altered the established range in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ভলিউম
$51,789শেষ তারিখ
Oct 5, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s to low-40s for the October 4 first round, with figures such as 36% in the latest Datafolha survey and 41.7% in AtlasIntel, reflecting steady consolidation of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party nominee as smaller conservative candidates remain marginal. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 39%+ outcome amid this positioning, driven by the candidate’s ability to inherit votes from other right-leaning contenders and recent gains among women shown in Quaest tracking. Campaign activity has intensified with direct attacks on President Lula’s last-minute Bolsa Família adjustment, while the overall race remains a technical tie in runoff simulations across multiple firms. No major last-minute shifts have altered the established range in the final weeks before voting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডসম্পর্কিত
Will Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
43%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
37%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
52%
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা