Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat with a D+2 partisan lean and 50.3% Kamala Harris support in 2024—into Democratic territory after incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement, creating a prime pickup opportunity. April SurveyUSA polls show GOP frontrunner Jim Desmond leading the crowded June 2 top-two primary at 25%, ahead of fragmented Democrats like Marni von Wilpert (6-16%) and Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), with 20-25% undecided, but traders price Democratic general election victory at 85% implied probability due to superior fundraising, Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating, and top-two dynamics likely pitting a consolidated Democrat against Desmond in a fundamentals-favoring matchup. Consolidation risks and primary turnout remain key variables ahead of June 2.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
14%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,754 Vol.
85%
Republican Party
$4,139 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat with a D+2 partisan lean and 50.3% Kamala Harris support in 2024—into Democratic territory after incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement, creating a prime pickup opportunity. April SurveyUSA polls show GOP frontrunner Jim Desmond leading the crowded June 2 top-two primary at 25%, ahead of fragmented Democrats like Marni von Wilpert (6-16%) and Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), with 20-25% undecided, but traders price Democratic general election victory at 85% implied probability due to superior fundraising, Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating, and top-two dynamics likely pitting a consolidated Democrat against Desmond in a fundamentals-favoring matchup. Consolidation risks and primary turnout remain key variables ahead of June 2.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ভলিউম
$9,893শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat with a D+2 partisan lean and 50.3% Kamala Harris support in 2024—into Democratic territory after incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement, creating a prime pickup opportunity. April SurveyUSA polls show GOP frontrunner Jim Desmond leading the crowded June 2 top-two primary at 25%, ahead of fragmented Democrats like Marni von Wilpert (6-16%) and Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), with 20-25% undecided, but traders price Democratic general election victory at 85% implied probability due to superior fundraising, Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating, and top-two dynamics likely pitting a consolidated Democrat against Desmond in a fundamentals-favoring matchup. Consolidation risks and primary turnout remain key variables ahead of June 2.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$9,893শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat with a D+2 partisan lean and 50.3% Kamala Harris support in 2024—into Democratic territory after incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement, creating a prime pickup opportunity. April SurveyUSA polls show GOP frontrunner Jim Desmond leading the crowded June 2 top-two primary at 25%, ahead of fragmented Democrats like Marni von Wilpert (6-16%) and Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), with 20-25% undecided, but traders price Democratic general election victory at 85% implied probability due to superior fundraising, Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating, and top-two dynamics likely pitting a consolidated Democrat against Desmond in a fundamentals-favoring matchup. Consolidation risks and primary turnout remain key variables ahead of June 2.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা