Persistent gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard blockades, water cannon incidents, and vessel rammings near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct naval combat or armed clashes through early 2026. Joint Philippine exercises such as Balikatan 2026 with the United States, Australia, and Japan prompted Chinese carrier patrols but produced no kinetic response, reinforcing trader views that mutual defense commitments and alliance deterrence limit escalation risks. Manila’s push for South China Sea code of conduct talks as ASEAN chair, alongside high-level bilateral dialogues, further supports the 80.5 percent implied probability against a military clash before 2027, as both sides prioritize containment over open conflict.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard blockades, water cannon incidents, and vessel rammings near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct naval combat or armed clashes through early 2026. Joint Philippine exercises such as Balikatan 2026 with the United States, Australia, and Japan prompted Chinese carrier patrols but produced no kinetic response, reinforcing trader views that mutual defense commitments and alliance deterrence limit escalation risks. Manila’s push for South China Sea code of conduct talks as ASEAN chair, alongside high-level bilateral dialogues, further supports the 80.5 percent implied probability against a military clash before 2027, as both sides prioritize containment over open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
ভলিউম
$356,126শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard blockades, water cannon incidents, and vessel rammings near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct naval combat or armed clashes through early 2026. Joint Philippine exercises such as Balikatan 2026 with the United States, Australia, and Japan prompted Chinese carrier patrols but produced no kinetic response, reinforcing trader views that mutual defense commitments and alliance deterrence limit escalation risks. Manila’s push for South China Sea code of conduct talks as ASEAN chair, alongside high-level bilateral dialogues, further supports the 80.5 percent implied probability against a military clash before 2027, as both sides prioritize containment over open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$356,126শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard blockades, water cannon incidents, and vessel rammings near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct naval combat or armed clashes through early 2026. Joint Philippine exercises such as Balikatan 2026 with the United States, Australia, and Japan prompted Chinese carrier patrols but produced no kinetic response, reinforcing trader views that mutual defense commitments and alliance deterrence limit escalation risks. Manila’s push for South China Sea code of conduct talks as ASEAN chair, alongside high-level bilateral dialogues, further supports the 80.5 percent implied probability against a military clash before 2027, as both sides prioritize containment over open conflict.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা