President Daniel Noboa’s decisive re-election in April 2025 for a full term ending in 2029, together with his legislative coalition’s control of enough National Assembly seats to block the two-thirds supermajority needed for impeachment or constitutional removal, anchors the near-certain trader consensus that he will remain in office through June 30. No formal impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or incapacity claims have emerged. Opposition groups have launched recall-referendum efforts and staged May Day protests citing security and economic concerns, yet the required collection of signatures from roughly 10 percent of registered voters faces steep logistical hurdles that make a binding vote before the deadline improbable. Realistic shifts in odds would require an unforeseen institutional shock such as a sudden health crisis or major legal development.