Don Lemon faces federal civil rights charges under the FACE Act stemming from his January 2026 coverage of a Minnesota church protest against immigration enforcement. Indicted alongside others on conspiracy counts, he entered a not guilty plea and filed motions to dismiss on grounds including vindictive prosecution, insufficient evidence, and improper application of the statute. A magistrate initially found no probable cause, and recent rulings have required the Justice Department to disclose grand jury materials amid ongoing challenges. Traders assign a 95.2% probability that he avoids prison because dismissal or acquittal remains the dominant path based on procedural developments and First Amendment considerations. Conviction after trial or plea could still lead to sentencing, though legal experts note structural weaknesses in the case that make such outcomes improbable without major shifts in court rulings.