Iliana Iotova’s established position as incumbent, combined with endorsements from Progressive Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party, underpins trader expectations for a first-round victory margin in the 20-30 point range over Andrey Gyurov. Recent September polling from Market Links placed the Iotova-Valchev ticket at 41.4% among decided voters against Gyurov-Kandev at 21.9%, producing a 19.5-point gap amid a field of 27 registered pairs and roughly 20% undecided respondents. With the October 25 vote three weeks away and projected turnout near 40%, the consensus reflects limited recent movement in support levels and the structural advantages of name recognition and institutional backing for the leading ticket, while the sizable “other” share accounts for possible shifts from undecided voters or turnout variations.