**Rafael López Aliaga leads trader consensus at 66.8% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election, ahead of Carlos Bruce at 29.4% and a fragmented field of roughly two dozen other candidates with minimal shares.** López Aliaga, the former mayor who resigned in 2025 to pursue the presidency, secured his spot as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list after the JNE upheld his candidacy in early September following earlier JEE objections tied to his senator-elect status. Recent CPI polling from late August placed him at 30.6% support—more than double Bruce’s 12.4% and ahead of Francis Allison and Daniel Urresti—reflecting his established base in the capital and party infrastructure despite a crowded ballot. Bruce, the Somos Perú candidate and Surco district mayor, remains the clearest alternative but trails significantly in available surveys. With voting three weeks away and no dominant late shifts reported, traders price the race around López Aliaga’s polling edge and structural advantages in a multi-candidate contest where vote splitting favors the frontrunner.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডRafael López Aliaga 65.9%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 30.3%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.5%
$147,995 Vol.
$147,995 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
66%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
30%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 65.9%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 30.3%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 1.5%
$147,995 Vol.
$147,995 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
66%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
30%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Rafael López Aliaga leads trader consensus at 66.8% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election, ahead of Carlos Bruce at 29.4% and a fragmented field of roughly two dozen other candidates with minimal shares.** López Aliaga, the former mayor who resigned in 2025 to pursue the presidency, secured his spot as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list after the JNE upheld his candidacy in early September following earlier JEE objections tied to his senator-elect status. Recent CPI polling from late August placed him at 30.6% support—more than double Bruce’s 12.4% and ahead of Francis Allison and Daniel Urresti—reflecting his established base in the capital and party infrastructure despite a crowded ballot. Bruce, the Somos Perú candidate and Surco district mayor, remains the clearest alternative but trails significantly in available surveys. With voting three weeks away and no dominant late shifts reported, traders price the race around López Aliaga’s polling edge and structural advantages in a multi-candidate contest where vote splitting favors the frontrunner.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা