Recent national polls, including Datafolha (Lula 40%, Flávio 36%) and Quaest (Lula 39%, Flávio 34%), show the Liberal Party senator trailing the incumbent president by narrow margins inside the margin of error, with other surveys placing Flávio between 37% and 43%. These figures reflect a polarized contest in which Flávio consolidates right-wing and evangelical support while struggling to expand beyond his father’s base ahead of the October 4 first round. Lula maintains strength among lower-income and northeastern voters. With no candidate approaching 50% and a runoff probable, traders have concentrated probability on Flávio’s first-round share falling in the 39-48% range, consistent with the stable polling trajectory and limited late shifts observed in the final week.