Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড9% সম্ভাবনা
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% সম্ভাবনা
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
ভলিউম
$31,480শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$31,480শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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