A recent Victory Insights poll of likely Republican primary voters found Florida’s 9th Congressional District contest statistically tied among Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, and Ben Butler, with Dan Green close behind and more than 40 percent undecided. The August 18 primary follows spring redistricting that repositioned the seat as a stronger GOP target against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto, drawing seven candidates with varied profiles including veterans, local officials, and business backgrounds. Multiple candidate forums this summer have not produced a decisive breakout, while fundraising and name recognition remain relatively dispersed. Trader consensus reflected in the market probabilities tracks these polling dynamics and the compressed timeline, with separation likely hinging on final-week turnout efforts, regional support in key counties such as Osceola and Indian River, or any late endorsements.