The recent constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent of voters in late August amid a boycott by major opposition groups, has reshaped Guinea-Bissau's electoral framework ahead of the December 6 general elections, cutting National People's Assembly seats from 102 to 65 and reducing constituencies from 29 to 12 while expanding presidential authority. This follows the November 2025 coup that annulled prior results and installed a military-led transitional government, leaving the legislative contest fragmented among multiple smaller parties and alliances with no clear frontrunner. Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in this compressed campaign window, where coalition-building, turnout in key regions, and any late positioning by transitional authorities could shift relative probabilities among contenders.