Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since mid-year announcements. This count reflects the Class II seats up for election, with specific retirements including Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional Republicans. Primary sources and trackers such as Ballotpedia and Senate records show no further departures in the weeks leading into the August 2026 period, while earlier 2025 statements from figures like Tillis helped establish the baseline. Traders assign 77% probability to exactly seven because additional exits would require late announcements or primary defeats not yet evident, and historical patterns for open Senate seats indicate limited shifts this close to the election. The implied probability on neighboring outcomes like nine or eleven remains low absent new developments in the remaining months.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড7 77%
11 11.3%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,019 Vol.
$101,019 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
7%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 11.3%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,019 Vol.
$101,019 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,977 Vol.
77%
8
$4,602 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
7%
12+
$5,082 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since mid-year announcements. This count reflects the Class II seats up for election, with specific retirements including Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional Republicans. Primary sources and trackers such as Ballotpedia and Senate records show no further departures in the weeks leading into the August 2026 period, while earlier 2025 statements from figures like Tillis helped establish the baseline. Traders assign 77% probability to exactly seven because additional exits would require late announcements or primary defeats not yet evident, and historical patterns for open Senate seats indicate limited shifts this close to the election. The implied probability on neighboring outcomes like nine or eleven remains low absent new developments in the remaining months.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$101,019শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since mid-year announcements. This count reflects the Class II seats up for election, with specific retirements including Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional Republicans. Primary sources and trackers such as Ballotpedia and Senate records show no further departures in the weeks leading into the August 2026 period, while earlier 2025 statements from figures like Tillis helped establish the baseline. Traders assign 77% probability to exactly seven because additional exits would require late announcements or primary defeats not yet evident, and historical patterns for open Senate seats indicate limited shifts this close to the election. The implied probability on neighboring outcomes like nine or eleven remains low absent new developments in the remaining months.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$101,019শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since mid-year announcements. This count reflects the Class II seats up for election, with specific retirements including Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Steve Daines in Montana, Cynthia Lummis in Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong in Oklahoma, alongside two additional Republicans. Primary sources and trackers such as Ballotpedia and Senate records show no further departures in the weeks leading into the August 2026 period, while earlier 2025 statements from figures like Tillis helped establish the baseline. Traders assign 77% probability to exactly seven because additional exits would require late announcements or primary defeats not yet evident, and historical patterns for open Senate seats indicate limited shifts this close to the election. The implied probability on neighboring outcomes like nine or eleven remains low absent new developments in the remaining months.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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