Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 68.5%, matching the exact count of confirmed retirement announcements as of early May: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). With no new GOP announcements in the past 30 days per trackers like Ballotpedia, odds have stabilized, though 21.6% on eight and 20% on 11 reflect speculation of additional retirements amid a favorable Class II map for Republicans defending 22 seats. Key upcoming factors include candidate filing deadlines and potential primary pressures that could prompt further exits before resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড7 64%
11 20.3%
8 14.6%
6 10.4%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
5%
6
10%
7
64%
8
18%
9
3%
10
3%
11
20%
12+
1%
7 64%
11 20.3%
8 14.6%
6 10.4%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$20,070 Vol.
1%
5
$15,535 Vol.
5%
6
$26,450 Vol.
10%
7
$2,145 Vol.
64%
8
$1,599 Vol.
18%
9
$1,328 Vol.
3%
10
$1,265 Vol.
3%
11
$923 Vol.
20%
12+
$4,416 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 68.5%, matching the exact count of confirmed retirement announcements as of early May: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). With no new GOP announcements in the past 30 days per trackers like Ballotpedia, odds have stabilized, though 21.6% on eight and 20% on 11 reflect speculation of additional retirements amid a favorable Class II map for Republicans defending 22 seats. Key upcoming factors include candidate filing deadlines and potential primary pressures that could prompt further exits before resolution.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$73,731শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 68.5%, matching the exact count of confirmed retirement announcements as of early May: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). With no new GOP announcements in the past 30 days per trackers like Ballotpedia, odds have stabilized, though 21.6% on eight and 20% on 11 reflect speculation of additional retirements amid a favorable Class II map for Republicans defending 22 seats. Key upcoming factors include candidate filing deadlines and potential primary pressures that could prompt further exits before resolution.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$73,731শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 68.5%, matching the exact count of confirmed retirement announcements as of early May: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). With no new GOP announcements in the past 30 days per trackers like Ballotpedia, odds have stabilized, though 21.6% on eight and 20% on 11 reflect speculation of additional retirements amid a favorable Class II map for Republicans defending 22 seats. Key upcoming factors include candidate filing deadlines and potential primary pressures that could prompt further exits before resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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