Recent congressional scrutiny of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein has introduced notable uncertainty into the trader consensus on his tenure. House Oversight Committee hearings in early May prompted Democrats to demand his immediate resignation over alleged inconsistencies in prior statements, while the Republican chair noted incomplete candor but offered no removal push. These developments coincide with Lutnick’s ongoing testimony on trade policy, budget requests, and semiconductor initiatives, signaling continued White House support and institutional engagement. With no formal resignation or termination announced and midterm political dynamics still distant, market pricing near even odds reflects the balance between episodic partisan pressure and the absence of decisive action from the administration or Senate. Upcoming committee reports or any direct White House statements could shift the implied probability in either direction before year-end.