Iran’s insistence that any lifting of the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz requires prior US fulfillment of multiple conditions—including sanctions relief and an end to hostilities—anchors the 83% “No” pricing. Recent November 2026 talks with Oman have advanced a framework for temporary commercial shipping corridors and mine clearance, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that these arrangements do not reopen the strait or end the blockade. Progress remains tied to broader negotiations with Washington, with Tehran emphasizing that Hormuz navigation will stay restricted until its seven-point demands are met. This sequencing keeps the probability of the blockade ending before a finalized Iran-Oman deal low in the eyes of traders.