Iran's recent direct military actions against Gulf Arab states, including a claimed strike on a U.S. radar installation in Bahrain on November 14, 2026, and intercepted drone launches, represent the primary driver of current trader assessments. Gulf Cooperation Council representatives reported over 7,000 Iranian missiles and drones targeting Persian Gulf territories since the broader conflict began, prompting sharp exchanges at the UN Security Council. Tehran has issued repeated warnings of retaliation against facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other neighbors if U.S. or Israeli strikes resume, alongside threats of ground incursions into adjacent countries. Ongoing proxy activity affecting Saudi oil infrastructure and diplomatic tensions over base access further shape assessments of escalation risks through the end of the year.