Trader consensus reflects sustained operations at Ben Gurion Airport and the Tel Aviv FIR through late October 2026, supported by phased resumption of international carriers, EASA guidance noting manageable risks rather than blanket restrictions, and the absence of sustained Iranian missile or drone barrages following earlier regional strikes. A large-scale Israeli Air Force training sortie near the Iranian border on October 21 served as a deterrent signal ahead of elections without triggering immediate escalation or airspace shutdowns. Partial or temporary measures tied to security incidents, such as drone threats or isolated flight adjustments, have not produced the broad civilian closure defining the market. A sudden Iranian retaliation, miscalculation during ongoing diplomatic tensions, or major attack on Israeli territory before October 31 could still prompt short-notice restrictions.