**Traders assign a 99% probability that James Comey will not be in jail by June 30, 2026, reflecting the current procedural timeline and his pretrial release status.** Comey faces federal charges from an April 2026 indictment in the Eastern District of North Carolina on two counts related to a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” which prosecutors allege constituted a threat against President Trump under statutes carrying up to 10 years’ imprisonment. He self-surrendered shortly after the indictment, appeared briefly in court in the Eastern District of Virginia, and was released on his own recognizance without conditions or detention. An earlier 2025 indictment on unrelated false-statement charges was dismissed, and the current case has seen scheduling adjustments, including an arraignment pushed from a potential June 30 date to September and a trial set for October. These developments leave no realistic path to conviction, sentencing, or custodial detention before the market’s resolution deadline. The consensus aligns with standard federal practice, in which defendants in non-violent threat cases without flight risk or danger findings remain free pending trial, and with historical base rates showing minimal pretrial incarceration absent specific aggravating factors. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain narrow but include an unexpected detention hearing resulting in remand, violation of any unstated release terms, or a rapid superseding indictment prompting immediate custody—none of which appear supported by current court records or filings.