Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces negligible implied odds of federal charges following the Department of Justice’s April 2026 decision to close its criminal investigation into his congressional testimony on headquarters renovations, citing insufficient evidence. The probe, opened in January amid political tensions over interest-rate policy, produced no indictments and allowed Powell to maintain his independent monetary stance amid steady inflation and labor-market data. Traders price the outcome near zero given the absence of new subpoenas or filings since April, with resolution tied to any formal indictment before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential congressional oversight hearings and December FOMC communications, though historical precedent shows rare criminal pursuit of sitting Fed chairs.