Current short-range forecasts from multiple meteorological models project a minimum temperature in Beijing of 16–17°C on September 14 under clear skies, light variable winds, and dry conditions, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16.4°C. This consensus supports market-implied odds clustering near the 9°C-or-below and 19°C-or-higher brackets because traders weigh residual model spread in nocturnal cooling rates, urban heat-island effects, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage against the strong baseline expectation of near-normal values. Ensemble runs show limited divergence on wind speed and boundary-layer mixing, keeping the probability of sub-10°C readings or highs near 19°C low unless an unanticipated surge of cooler air arrives from the north. Updated model guidance and official observations from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.