Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C for Toronto on August 24 under mostly cloudy skies with light showers and sustained westerly winds of 15–20 km/h. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling by trapping heat and mixing the boundary layer, supporting market-implied probabilities clustered around 12–14°C while keeping 9°C or below at 46.5% as a lower-probability tail scenario requiring greater-than-expected advection of cooler air. Persistent onshore flow from Lake Ontario and above-normal humidity further moderate overnight drops compared to historical August averages near 17°C, with any clearer breaks potentially allowing brief dips toward 12–13°C before daytime mixing resumes.