The Sonora gubernatorial race for 2027 remains fragmented, with trader probabilities clustered in the mid-30s for leading contenders including Heriberto Aguilar Castillo, Lilly Téllez García, Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez, and Javier Lamarque Cano. Morena holds a structural edge, reflected in recent state-level polling showing the party at roughly 42% voting intention against PAN at 20%, yet no single aspirant has consolidated support ahead of internal selection processes. Opposition figures from PAN and PRI face similar diffusion, while early surveys among Morena hopefuls highlight ties or narrow leads for names such as Célida López and Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas. Absent major endorsements, scandals, or shifts in federal alignment, the field stays competitive through the coming months of party negotiations and candidate registration.