Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump maintain regular contact amid ongoing US-Canada trade tensions, including a October 11 phone call focused on energy exports, Ukraine-related developments, and bilateral issues. Carney, who has pursued diversification away from US dependence through new pipelines, EU ties, and retaliatory tariffs, has also held prior in-person Oval Office meetings this year. Recent public exchanges feature mutual jabs over tariffs, sovereignty references, and election-related warnings, while both sides continue negotiating steel, aluminum, and energy deals. Scheduled diplomatic events or further high-level talks could influence near-term meeting probabilities, though procedural and political frictions remain key variables.