Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder charges in Utah state court for the September 2025 shooting death of Charlie Kirk. Prosecutors presented DNA, surveillance, and statements during a July 2026 preliminary hearing, leading to a September bind-over order and a not-guilty plea. The court set jury selection for June 2028, with the trial expected to span months. This timeline places any potential conviction well after the market’s July 31, 2027 resolution deadline. Traders have priced the “No” outcome at 94 percent, reflecting the procedural schedule and absence of plea developments that could produce a qualifying judgment before the cutoff. Defense requests for a 2029 start and ongoing evidentiary motions further support expectations that resolution will occur outside the contract window.