The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. With roughly four months remaining in the year, trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" reflects the exceptional nature of that raid—tied to specific narco-terrorism charges, regional drug trafficking priorities, and a concentrated strike on Caracas infrastructure—rather than a broader pattern. No comparable diplomatic breakdowns, active military campaigns, or official statements have signaled imminent operations against other heads of state. Geopolitical focus has instead shifted toward post-intervention stabilization in Venezuela, ongoing bilateral relations, and unrelated domestic policy priorities, making a repeat event before year-end highly improbable under current conditions.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% সম্ভাবনা
$80,974 Vol.
$80,974 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% সম্ভাবনা
$80,974 Vol.
$80,974 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. With roughly four months remaining in the year, trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" reflects the exceptional nature of that raid—tied to specific narco-terrorism charges, regional drug trafficking priorities, and a concentrated strike on Caracas infrastructure—rather than a broader pattern. No comparable diplomatic breakdowns, active military campaigns, or official statements have signaled imminent operations against other heads of state. Geopolitical focus has instead shifted toward post-intervention stabilization in Venezuela, ongoing bilateral relations, and unrelated domestic policy priorities, making a repeat event before year-end highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
ভলিউম
$80,974শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. With roughly four months remaining in the year, trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" reflects the exceptional nature of that raid—tied to specific narco-terrorism charges, regional drug trafficking priorities, and a concentrated strike on Caracas infrastructure—rather than a broader pattern. No comparable diplomatic breakdowns, active military campaigns, or official statements have signaled imminent operations against other heads of state. Geopolitical focus has instead shifted toward post-intervention stabilization in Venezuela, ongoing bilateral relations, and unrelated domestic policy priorities, making a repeat event before year-end highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$80,974শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation remains the sole recent precedent for such an action. With roughly four months remaining in the year, trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" reflects the exceptional nature of that raid—tied to specific narco-terrorism charges, regional drug trafficking priorities, and a concentrated strike on Caracas infrastructure—rather than a broader pattern. No comparable diplomatic breakdowns, active military campaigns, or official statements have signaled imminent operations against other heads of state. Geopolitical focus has instead shifted toward post-intervention stabilization in Venezuela, ongoing bilateral relations, and unrelated domestic policy priorities, making a repeat event before year-end highly improbable under current conditions.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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