**The high implied probability of “No” (88.5%) reflects the absence of any full-scale U.S. invasion of a Latin American country through late August 2026, despite an assertive counter-narcotics posture.** U.S. actions have centered on targeted operations, such as the January 2026 special forces raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, ongoing strikes against suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, and joint land missions with partner governments in Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras to target criminal networks. These steps, framed as cooperation against designated terrorist organizations, have involved limited U.S. force rather than unilateral occupation or regime-change invasions. Recent developments reinforce trader expectations. In the past month, the administration has advanced oil arrangements with Venezuelan interim authorities, announced expanded joint operations near the Colombia-Ecuador border, and held talks with Mexican officials on migration and fentanyl. Rhetoric toward Cuba has included military options and a fuel blockade, yet these have remained at the level of pressure and intelligence activity without crossing into invasion. No new escalatory triggers—such as a major bilateral rupture or congressional authorization for broader combat—have emerged. With more than eight months of 2026 elapsed and U.S. strategy emphasizing alliances, economic leverage, and precision actions over large-scale deployments, market pricing aligns with the observed pattern of calibrated engagement rather than outright invasion.