Despite early 2026 rhetoric from President Trump suggesting military options to acquire Greenland from Denmark, subsequent diplomatic developments have sharply reduced the likelihood of an invasion. Negotiations produced a framework agreement in late January that expanded U.S. basing rights without territorial seizure, tariffs on European goods were withdrawn, and the Pentagon confirmed it received no orders to prepare contingency plans. Bipartisan congressional resolutions opposed any use of force against the NATO ally, while Danish and Greenlandic leaders rejected coercive measures. With no new escalatory actions or policy shifts reported in the intervening months, traders assign a 93.5 percent probability to the "no" outcome, reflecting the absence of credible pathways to military action before year-end.