Trump's repeated proposals for tariff-funded dividends, including a $2,000 payment discussed in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" pledged in September 2026 if Republicans retain congressional control, have not advanced to implementation. Annual tariff revenue has hovered near $150–200 billion, well below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person payouts, a gap highlighted by analyses from the Tax Foundation and Budget Lab. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed key tariff authorities, further limiting projected collections. Officials have indicated legislation or new appropriations would likely be needed, yet no authorizing bills have progressed, and prior deadlines for similar measures passed without action. These fiscal, legal, and procedural barriers sustain trader consensus on the low likelihood of formal creation by year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড7% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
7% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's repeated proposals for tariff-funded dividends, including a $2,000 payment discussed in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" pledged in September 2026 if Republicans retain congressional control, have not advanced to implementation. Annual tariff revenue has hovered near $150–200 billion, well below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person payouts, a gap highlighted by analyses from the Tax Foundation and Budget Lab. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed key tariff authorities, further limiting projected collections. Officials have indicated legislation or new appropriations would likely be needed, yet no authorizing bills have progressed, and prior deadlines for similar measures passed without action. These fiscal, legal, and procedural barriers sustain trader consensus on the low likelihood of formal creation by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
ভলিউম
$3,014শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's repeated proposals for tariff-funded dividends, including a $2,000 payment discussed in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" pledged in September 2026 if Republicans retain congressional control, have not advanced to implementation. Annual tariff revenue has hovered near $150–200 billion, well below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person payouts, a gap highlighted by analyses from the Tax Foundation and Budget Lab. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed key tariff authorities, further limiting projected collections. Officials have indicated legislation or new appropriations would likely be needed, yet no authorizing bills have progressed, and prior deadlines for similar measures passed without action. These fiscal, legal, and procedural barriers sustain trader consensus on the low likelihood of formal creation by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$3,014শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Trump's repeated proposals for tariff-funded dividends, including a $2,000 payment discussed in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" pledged in September 2026 if Republicans retain congressional control, have not advanced to implementation. Annual tariff revenue has hovered near $150–200 billion, well below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person payouts, a gap highlighted by analyses from the Tax Foundation and Budget Lab. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed key tariff authorities, further limiting projected collections. Officials have indicated legislation or new appropriations would likely be needed, yet no authorizing bills have progressed, and prior deadlines for similar measures passed without action. These fiscal, legal, and procedural barriers sustain trader consensus on the low likelihood of formal creation by year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা