The dominant 96% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline reflects the combined influence of long-term anthropogenic warming and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event now forecast to reach very strong or record intensity by late 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports Niño-3.4 anomalies already above +2.0°C with subsurface heat content supporting further intensification, consistent with patterns that have elevated recent 12-month averages to 1.45°C. Official seasonal outlooks place high likelihood on sustained warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, aligning trader consensus with observed trends and model consensus. Only an abrupt, unexpected El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift outcomes into lower bins, scenarios viewed as low-probability given current ocean-atmosphere coupling.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAugust 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
August 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
>1,29ºC 96.2%
1,25–1,29ºC 3.6%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$13,858 Vol.
$13,858 Vol.
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
4%
>1,29ºC
96%
>1,29ºC 96.2%
1,25–1,29ºC 3.6%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$13,858 Vol.
$13,858 Vol.
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
$2,077 Vol.
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
$2,513 Vol.
4%
>1,29ºC
$6,270 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The dominant 96% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline reflects the combined influence of long-term anthropogenic warming and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event now forecast to reach very strong or record intensity by late 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports Niño-3.4 anomalies already above +2.0°C with subsurface heat content supporting further intensification, consistent with patterns that have elevated recent 12-month averages to 1.45°C. Official seasonal outlooks place high likelihood on sustained warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, aligning trader consensus with observed trends and model consensus. Only an abrupt, unexpected El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift outcomes into lower bins, scenarios viewed as low-probability given current ocean-atmosphere coupling.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$13,858Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The dominant 96% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline reflects the combined influence of long-term anthropogenic warming and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event now forecast to reach very strong or record intensity by late 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports Niño-3.4 anomalies already above +2.0°C with subsurface heat content supporting further intensification, consistent with patterns that have elevated recent 12-month averages to 1.45°C. Official seasonal outlooks place high likelihood on sustained warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, aligning trader consensus with observed trends and model consensus. Only an abrupt, unexpected El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift outcomes into lower bins, scenarios viewed as low-probability given current ocean-atmosphere coupling.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$13,858Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 96% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline reflects the combined influence of long-term anthropogenic warming and a rapidly strengthening El Niño event now forecast to reach very strong or record intensity by late 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports Niño-3.4 anomalies already above +2.0°C with subsurface heat content supporting further intensification, consistent with patterns that have elevated recent 12-month averages to 1.45°C. Official seasonal outlooks place high likelihood on sustained warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, aligning trader consensus with observed trends and model consensus. Only an abrupt, unexpected El Niño collapse or major data revision could realistically shift outcomes into lower bins, scenarios viewed as low-probability given current ocean-atmosphere coupling.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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